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The Blog

Group Stage Prediction Evaluation Results

30, 06, 18
0 Comment
As readers here will know, I’ve been tracking rankings of teams in the 2018 World Cup as predictions as I’ve been doing this for the past several World Cups. The 2018 competition wound up with 12 rankings, plus an ensemble representing the average of all of the 12. With the 48 group s
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Germany Lives On

28, 06, 18
5 Comments
The elimination of Germany from the group stages of the World Cup is a remarkable break with history. Germany has reached the elite eight of every World Cup since 1966. Germany appeared in seven of the last thirteen World Cup finals and won it three times. Even more remarkably, the Wo
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The rebirth of Polish football

23, 06, 18
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This article appeared in today’s Gazeta Wyborca (in Polish). On July 3rd 1974 at around 4pm a huge thunderstorm broke over the Waldstadion in Frankfurt, about an hour before the scheduled start of the World Cup second stage group match between West Germany and Poland. This was e
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World Cup 2018 Prediction Evaluation: Got Skill?

14, 06, 18
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Sport tournaments offer a great laboratory to see if we as smart as we think we are by giving us the chance to predict the future. In 2014 I evaluated 12 different predictions for how the World Cup matches would turn out. For World Cup 2018 in Russia I have identified 8 different rank
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My World Cup predictions and why they will be wrong

13, 06, 18
2 Comments
So with time on my hands I decided to join the bandwagon and produce some World Cup predictions. They will be hopelessly wrong. The reason they will be wrong is that they are based on a statistical model that uses historical data to estimate the contributions of different factors to w
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How the 2008 Financial Crisis impacted European football club finances

05, 06, 18
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The 2018 Report Calcio provides some nice summary charts about European club finances, which in turn are based on the annual (ish) UEFA Club Licensing Benchmarking Reports. The data refers to the clubs in the top division of each of the UEFA member associations (just over 700). The th
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Thoughts on the proposed FIFA World Club Cup

18, 05, 18
1 Comment
Details of the proposals for the Club World Cup have been leaking out at the Financial Times. FIFA is due to consider the entire proposition which is valued at around $25 billion, and seems to come from a consortium led by Softbank. The World Club Cup element is said to be worth aroun
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How MLS is becoming more like the Premier League

13, 05, 18
3 Comments
The MLS Players’ Association released its annual salary guide a few days ago and so it is interesting to review this in the light of the trends in attendance and TV viewership that I posted in the last few days. The main headline is that aggregate salaries have risen to $250 million,
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Reflections on MLS owners’ meetings

12, 05, 18
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Owners meetings at MLS must be slightly odd affairs, compared to most other leagues around the world. In the soccer world you have a steady turnover of clubs due to promotion and relegation, so that typically 10-20% of your membership is new each season. With the US major leagues ther
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A review of 2017 MLS TV viewing data

12, 05, 18
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This article was first published on World Soccer Talk. Thanks to Collin Werner for his dedication to collecting the data, you can see his week by week analysis here. Last year, I analyzed the soccer TV ratings data World Soccer Talk collected for 2016. This year, World Soccer Talk wri
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Welcome to The Blog

We hope it will be a venue for some of our new thinking on football, money and data. We wrote the book Soccernomics because we believed that systematic data analysis could tell us interesting things about football. Our collaboration is a match of science and art, matching the numbers to a convincing story, something which we have to do in our day-jobs as a journalist and an academic.

Soccernomics had done well in the UK, the US and around the world since it was published in 2009, and we published a second edition in the spring of 2012 with three new chapters telling more stories using yet more data. But there’s no reason to stop there. Thus far, researchers have only scratched the surface of the football data mines. One of the aims of this blog is to talk about some of the research that is going on, and some of the uses to which that data is being put. For this new project, we’re also joined by journalist and consultant Ben Lyttleton, our partner in the Soccernomics consultancy.


Contact Us

ben@soccernomics-agency.com

From the Blog

  • Abolition of the transfer system
  • Forecasting the final table for the Premier League 19/20 season: Revisited
  • Forecasting the final table for the Premier League 19/20 season
  • Covid-19 and football club insolvency
  • Soccer Analytics update

Soccernomics on Twitter

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Opinion we like

Anders Red

The Swiss Ramble

Roger Pielke, Jnr

The Sports Economist

John Beech

Zach Slaton

Football Economy

Soccer Analysts

Soccermetrics

A Beautiful Numbers Game

Zonal Marking

The Wages of Wins Journal

Int. Journal of Sport Finance

Rod Fort: Sports Monsters

Data we like

11v11

Football Observatory

RSSSF

European Football Statistics

Football Data

Football Squads

Neil Brown

Soccerbase

MUFPLC

League Managers

Manchester City Analytics

In The Media

Data Analysis at Big Clubs

Becks’ MLS Impact in The Sun

How Liverpool Misread Moneyball

On Racism in Football

NBC’S Premier League Rights Deal

Soccernomics on Baseball Site Honus