QPR owner Tony Fernandes is to be admired for his loyalty to coach Mark Hughes, who might have been sacked before now by many other club chairmen. But with QPR still bottom of the Premier League, and without a win in 12 games, is Fernandes wise to keep faith with the under-pressure Welshman?
Here is the Soccernomics view, and the advice we would give Fernandes:
i. Don’t listen to the fans.
We advocate the wisdom of crowds, but within the club rather than outside it. So if the fans want a certain coach to replace Hughes, remember that Newcastle fans wanted Kevin Keegan and then Alan Shearer to coach their team, and what happened there. It is wise to always have a list of alternative options for coach in mind – even when things are going well. The Soccernomics Coaches’ Index calculates how coaches have performed relative to their club’s wage bills, to detect coaches who over-achieve with the players they have.
ii. Don’t spend more money in January – do loan deals.
Transfers are a great way of wasting money. Soccernomics shows that whereas there’s a very strong correlation between a club’s wage bill and its league position, the correlation between net transfer spending and league position is weak. In other words, money spent on transfers tends not to help a club. This is because a very high proportion of transfers fails, often because the player struggles to adapt to his new environment (see point iii, below). And transfers are expensive. Instead, we recommend that in January, QPR try to sign several players on loan. If the average loan player’s salary for six months is, say £700,000, and QPR get five new players, then that would cost just £3.5m. A very average Premier League player might cost that in transfer fee alone. Better yet, if QPR go down, then loan players can just be sent back to their old clubs. Their high wages wouldn’t burden QPR in the Championship.
iii. Make sure your new signings are integrated.
Stephane Mbia gave a worrying interview to French newspaper L’Equipe which was published on Saturday, October 27: firstly, he said he thought he was signing for Glasgow Rangers in Scotland; then he declared how he was struggling with the language, too nervous to drive on the left-hand side, and that he missed his family, still in France, and would go back to Marseille on every day off. Later that afternoon, QPR were drawing 0-0 at Arsenal until Mbia had a rush of blood, kicked out at Thomas Vermaelen and was sent off. Arsenal ended up scoring a late winner. That’s not to say Mbia would have had more self-control had he been happier off the pitch, but it is crucial that clubs look after their assets away from football. An aside, possibly unconnected: since their promotion 15 months ago, QPR have had a player sent off ten times, two of whom were English (Joey Barton, twice, and Clint Hill). The others have been Djibril Cisse (twice), Samba Diakite (twice), Armand Traore and Adel Taarabt.
iv. Appoint a new coach carefully.
If QPR do sack Hughes, don’t give his job to the next famous ex-player who appears charming and wise at the job interview. Soccernomics shows that there is no correlation between having been a good player and being a good manager. Hughes is the last great ex-footballer without a stellar managerial record still managing in the Premier League. QPR should choose their next manager based on his managerial virtues alone. Playing career has nothing to do with it. And one last tip: because other clubs appear to discriminate against black managers, QPR would have a free pick of almost any black manager in European football.
To be fair, after reading Soccernomics (some time ago) and then reading this blog it doesn’t appear to me that anything new has been offered with respect to ‘what approach QPR should take’ in replacing Hughes. Perhaps that is not the intent of this blog?
If QPR hadn’t already considered what had been offered up earlier by the Soccernomics book (and statistics to go with it) is it really an expectation that they will listen now?
To be honest I have no clue who their owner is but it seems the owner has/had good intentions by opening up the checkbook for Hughes to build his team.
As you accurately speak to – the team performance may be more a reflection of the organization and not of Mark Hughes… so for me at least I would offer that a more compelling argument may be to offer that the General Manager get sacked and the organization itself get better management inside the front office before waving the flag on Hughes… and thereby waving the flag on wasting all that money for players…
From any entirely different vantage point perhaps no matter what type of quality Hughes gets, within reason, he simply can’t manage the appropriate formation he needs to manage to get a win in the Premier League. Of course he has won games with other teams in the league so that argument may not be as compelling but…….. when considering all the potential proteges of Alex Ferguson is Mark Hughes the first ex-player that comes to mind as being cerebral?
I would submit that the Soccernomics ‘strategy’ has some value and benefit in peeling back the onion to determine what may be working and not working but it has limitations… as mentioned elsewhere decision making is, as much of an art, as it is a science… what would help me better understand your offering is knowing what other ‘hard statistics’ you have… relative to the QPR performances on game day besides ‘sending offs’…
For what it is worth those are my three cents from across the Pond…. would like to read any additional thoughts you provide/offer…
Hi Chris,
Thanks for your points. You’re right, there is little new in this that’s not in Soccernomics (although the Coaches’ Index is a new product that’s not in the book) although it seems pretty clear from the outside that the owner/General Manager (in this case, CEO) has not read, or at least followed, the Soccernomics advice: one thing they did was to go ‘all in’ with Hughes, ceding total control of the club to him, not just the first-team but also the recruitment (he brought in his man from Man City, Mike Rigg, to head that department) and other areas of the club. This is dangerous for many reasons, not least now, when the prospect of sacking Hughes makes it a) very expensive and b) another overhaul of the rest of the club.
This is why the Sports Director model at West Bromwich Albion works so well: Dan Ashworth (who is leaving to join the England FA at the end of the season) is responsible for player recruitment and appointing the new coach: he has hired Roberto Di Matteo, Roy Hodgson and Steve Clarke, all of whom have performed superbly within their remit. Look at Swansea too, who hire coaches that fit the vision and philosophy of their club: a passing game started by Roberto Martinez and continued by Paulo Sousa, Brendan Rodgers and Michael Laudrup. These club owners have a vision, work within tight budgets, and are over-achieving. You don’t need to see QPR’s on-pitch data stats to realise that the same is not happening there.
Cheers, Ben
Ben,
Thanks for the reply and additional ‘grist for the mill’ 🙂 All-in sounds about right; as we say here in America “holy cow”.
Thanks, Chris