German football fans are revelling in the success of the Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund, and rightly so- they have dominated the Champions League this season and their defeats of Barcelona and Real Madrid respectively were spectacular. It’s not surprising that people can derive national pride from the success of their clubs- when Manchester United played Chelsea in the final in 2008 there was talk of English supremacy, likewise there was gloating in Italy when AC Milan played Juventus in 2003 and in Spain when Real Madrid played Valencia in 2000.
Of course, it’s only since 1997/98 that more than one clubs per country has been admitted to the Champions League, and only the large countries secure three or four places. In the 16 seasons before 1997/98, teams from England, Germany, Italy and Spain supplied 21 of the 32 finalists (3 from England, 4 from Germany, 11 from Italy and 3 from Spain); since then the big four have supplied 30 out of 32 (9 from England, 7 from Germany, 6 from Italy and 8 from Spain). It’s not surprising that the Champions League has generated same country finalists in one quarter of its contests- teams from other countries barely stand a chance.
Bayern Munich appear to be the greatest beneficiaries of the post 97 Champions League era, having appeared in the finals 5 times, more than any other team. Manchester United is second with four appearances, and Barca, Real Madrid and AC Milan tied on three each). Thus these five teams alone account for more 50% of the 32 finalists since 1997. In the previous 16 seasons Barca also appeared 3 times, AC Milan 5 times, Bayern Munich only once, and Manchester United and Real Madrid not at all. So as well as the rise of Bayern Munich, the current era has seen the rise of English teams, principally Manchester United, and Spanish teams, principally Real Madrid. The casualties have been the Italian teams and the teams from countries outside the big 4.
The explanation for this trend lies in the commercial development of the game, in England and with the big two in Spain. Barca, Real Madrid and Manchester United are now global brands, and have developed commercial income to match. Bayern Munich is also a dominant brand, but it still generates most of its income within Germany, but given the size of the German economy and its dominance of the game in Germany, it can match the other global teams. Some commentators have rightly observed that it is not so much the success of Bayern which is striking, but that of Borussia Dortmund, which is not normally thought of as a big name team. But even that is a rather odd statement for team which regularly sells out its 80,000 capacity, making it the third largest club stadium in Europe after Camp Nou and the Bernabeu. Wouldn’t it be a surprise if it weren’t successful?
The point, of course, is that some people want to say that the model of football in the rest of Europe is broken and the Germans have got it right. UEFA’s Financial Fair Play is largely inspired by the German model. Many critics of football organization, especially in England, would like to copy the German model. This was true even when German teams were not winning, but now that they are, their success is being attributed to their business model. Those people may wind up with egg on their face if German teams don’t continue to win in the future. It’s only last year that we were talking about the unbeatable teams of Spain- Barca and the national team- so was that success attributable to the Spanish business model?
But even if German teams do now enter an era of success, that is still not enough to prove that their business model is the reason for their success, still less that other countries should copy it. I have to make tea now, so I think I’ll write another blog in a day or two explaining my views on the German football business model and what that means for the rest of Europe.
As somebody who extensively watch at the league tables from different seasons I noticed two things, one of which is quite familiar to most.
First the well known one. Bayern has dominated German football ever since the seventies. They have won Bundesliga 22 times while their nearest rivals,the two Borussias, have both won five. The current difference in revenues is quite reflective of this. In Europe, their form was quite consistent. They have reached the final of European Cup/Champions League at least once every decade since the seventies (with the total of now ten times) and went up to the semi-finals additional five times. In short, they are one of the most consistently good football clubs in Europe and have been that for last forty years. Their success should not be surprising at all.
The second interesting thing I noticed has to do with other German clubs. Every single other German club that had a consistently good results for a few years ended up in EC/CL final. Gladbach had a period of success in seventies during which they played the European Cup final in 1977. HSV had a period of success at the turn of the decades and played in two finals (1980 and 1983). Middle nineties were an era of Dortmund success crowned in 1997. Bayer Leverkusen was never a champion but were consistently near the top (in most cases second) of the Bundesliga at the turn of the century and Dortmund again dominated Bundesliga in previous two seasons. Typically, every team that was able to challenge Bayern, one of the top European teams for the better part of last 40 years, over a few seasons, was also among best in Europe. Is that really surprising? Germany produced and produces many good players that spend most of their career in Bundesliga and Bayern can’t absorb them all.
Might it just be that we are seeing nothing really extraordinary here, but rather something that has been happening regularly for a few decades? We never had a German final before, but we did have back to back finals of German clubs. Actually, the only really surprising thing is that one German club, not situated in Munich and with the name beginning with B, had a second successful era.
If the German business model secures the Bayern position as the dominant German club, does it actually make occurrences like this less rather than more likely?
Makes sense to me. But if we take this longer term perspective, then Spanish, Italian and English clubs have been more successful, e.g. measured by championships won, so we can hardly say that the German business model has generated more success on the pitch. Of course, there may be other benefits of the system.
I do agree with you. After all, it produces one top club that more or less constantly competes for titles and only occasionally some other joins them. The other big leagues usually have more top clubs.
I think there is a major difference between the current Bundesliga model and its predecessors: the highly sophisticated and top-notch German youth development programme.
Hence, I don`t think that this season will be a flash in the pan (obviously it is unlikely that an all-German final will happen again in the near future) – but I would expect Dortmund to stay a force in Europe (despite losing two of its best players) and clubs like Schalke and Leverkusen to make some noise in the CL as well.
There are simply so many top quality youngsters in the Bundesliga right now. And this stream of talent makes it possible to build quality teams without huge financial ressources and punch above their financial weight in Europe.
Not only does the youth development programme improve the Bundesliga drastically – it also has a global impact. Germany – in contrast to popular believe – has a very multicultural society with lots of dual nationals. German-born players who are not good enough for the German national team, but have an option to play for a different country due to their heritage, often choose to do so. Half of the USMNT are in fact German-born dual-nationals (Timothy Chandler,Jermaine Jones,Danny Williams,Fabian Johnson). And there are many other national teams who benefit from the German youth development programme (Turkey,Poland,the Philippines,Ghana).
I think this is an overstatement. There was a very good article in the Times about this yesterday by Gabriele Marcotti: http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/sport/columnists/gabrielemarcotti/article3756911.ece
though unfortunately you need a subscription to see it. The point he makes is that while it’s true that the German FA has established a good youth training system over the last decade and they have produced a crop of good players recently, they have not done so consistently. Moreover, he points out that Germany is not alone in reforming its youth system- the FA has done a lot, and surely it is less than a year since everyone was salivating over the virtues of La Masia. What happened? I think this is a good example of a cognitive bias known as the availability heuristic http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Availability_heuristic – German clubs are successful today and therefore we explain success in football based on the German model. Last year it was Spain- two Euros and a World Cup on the trot, eh? Two years ago it was Barcelona. A few years back it was Italy. In the British media the success of the English teams did not generate quite so much talk of the virtues of the English model- but there was talk in other countries.
The fact is that Europe currently has four big leagues- England, Germany, Italy and Spain- and the clubs from these countries have dominated European competition since it began and have increased their dominance noticeably in the Champions League era. For the moment all other discussions about the dominance of one model or another is just fluff.
Unfortunately, I can`t read Marcotti`s article as I don`t have a subscription. I would really like to hear his opinion as I do appreciate him as a football writer – but I don`t see how the German youth development programme has not produced good players on a consistant basis.
“German clubs are successful today and therefore we explain success in football based on the German model”
I am German myself and I am very interested in the systems and theories behind it. I bought your book in English before it was available in German. I predicted the “rise” (note: not the dominance) of the Bundesliga in 2008 – long before people in Germany and abroad were aware of it. And one of the reasons I mentioned back then was the youth development programme. I am sure that many observers these days have a cognitive bias, but it doesn`t apply to me.
I don`t think that the Bundesliga will be the dominant league in the future – but I expect improved results. The Premier League should be the dominant league in Europe – but it seems, at least at the moment, that English clubs don`t make the most out of their huge financial ressources. If they become more efficient with their financial means, then I expect them to be the undisputed No.1 in Europe.
Hi Karol
Sorry, I didn’t mean to imply that the cognitive bias necessarily applied to you- but I think you’d agree that the outpourings of the media in the last week have been a bit over the top (nothing unusual there). I think you and I mostly agree- the German underperformance in Europe over the last decade was surely an anomaly- in general the four big leagues have shared honours more of less evenly. I think, based on national economic strength the Bundesliga should dominate Europe- and this is what I’m going to write a longer blog about soon. But again, you shouldn’t judge the English teams on one season- there was an English team in the final in all of the previous 8 seasons except one, an all English final in 2008, and three (different) winners in the past 10 years- no other country is close to this level of performance over the last decade.