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MLS, EPL and NFL on Twitter

11, 12, 16
by Stefan Szymanski
1 Comment

It’s that time of year when I should be grading papers, so instead I decide to write a blog post. Since the MLS season ended yesterday with the penalty shoot-out victory of the Seattle Sounders, I was looking on twitter to see how many people watched the big game (about 1.3 million according to Sports TV Ratings) and then I thought, “what about twitter followers”? It’s still unclear what role social media will play in the economics of professional sports, but it clearly will play a role, and it also gives us a new way to look at popularity.

So I looked up the number of twitter followers for each of the official sites of the MLS teams that played this season and produced the following Table:

team Twitter followers (000) franchise age Last won MLS Cup
LA Galaxy 309 21 2014
Seattle Sounders FC 291 8 2016
Orlando City SC 282 2
New York City FC 277 2
Toronto FC 271 10
Vancouver Whitecaps FC 271 6
Sporting Kansas City 250 21 2013
Houston Dynamo 250 11 2007
Montreal Impact 238 5
Portland Timbers 200 6 2015
New York Red Bulls 169 21
San Jose Earthquakes 154 21 2003
Columbus Crew SC 123 21 2008
FC Dallas 113 21
Real Salt Lake 111 12 2009
D.C. United 110 21 2004
Chicago Fire 108 19 1998
Philadelphia Union 96 7
New England Revolution 82 21
Colorado Rapids 76 21 2010

 

The total number of followers is 3.8 million, the average is 189k and the ratio highest to lowest is 4x.

Several things struck me as potentially interesting. I wouldn’t want to read to much into the number for any one team, since much also depends on how well run the feed is. But it does seems striking that the top four either won the MLS Cup or joined the league recently. It’s also striking that only two of the founding franchises are in the top half of the table. I guess the point is that social media is driven by news, not history.

I thought of two obvious comparisons. First. here’s the equivalent table for the Premier League:

club Twitter followers (000)
Man United
9460
Arsenal
8600
Chelsea
7620
Liverpool
6500
Man. City
3770
Tottenham
1720
West Ham
1020
Everton
984
Leicester City
876
Southampton
662
Swansea City
644
Stoke City
632
Sunderland
617
West Brom
533
Crystal Palace
451
Hull City
305
Watford
265
Bournemouth
230
Burnley FC
205
Middlesbrough
181

 

The total is 45 million and the average is 2.3 million, while the ratio of highest to lowest is 52x. This repeats a story that I have told many times: English soccer is characterized by huge inequality which doesn’t seem to diminish interest in the product (contrary to a large literature on the economics of sport that says that it will).

The top 5 teams are all globally recognized names, and again it seems clear that history does not count for that much. Everton and Burnley have just as much history as Manchester City and Chelsea, but not the recent record of success. I would also wager that one year ago Leicester’s follower numbers were lower than Burnley’s, but were boosted by their remarkable Premier League success.

For a second comparison I looked at the NFL. Here’s the table:

Franchise Twitter followers (000)
New England Patriots 2750
Dallas Cowboys 2240
Denver Broncos 1970
Carolina Panthers 1900
Pittsburgh Steelers 1600
Seattle Seahawks 1560
Green Bay Packers 1450
Philadelphia Eagles 1410
San Francisco 49ers 1410
Chicago Bears 1260
New York Giants 1250
Houston Texans 1170
New York Jets 1040
Atlanta Falcons 1030
New Orleans Saints 995
Detroit Lions 965
Baltimore Ravens 948
Washington Redskins 832
Oakland Raiders 829
Cleveland Browns 761
Minnesota Vikings 757
Kansas City Chiefs 729
Miami Dolphins 713
Indianapolis Colts 710
Buffalo Bills 635
Cincinnati Bengals 630
San Diego Chargers 606
Arizona Cardinals 582
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 531
Tennessee Titans 490
Los Angeles Rams 442
Jacksonville Jaguars 397

 

The total is 35 million, the average is 1.1 million, and the ratio of the highest to lowest is 5.7x. This illustrates the way in which the more egalitarian NFL dominates the US market while the biggest Premier League clubs reach a much larger international market.

The MLS looks more like a scaled down version of the NFL than the Premier League, which is exactly what the owners intend. To be successful MLS will need to grow its footprint in the US market primarily, since it tends to be the standout teams that generate an international following (Barca and Real Madrid have even bigger twitter followings).

The social media story could be spun positively or negatively for MLS. The positive spin is this: their twitter presence is over 10% of the NFL’s when their TV rights income is around 1% ($7 billion per year for the NFL against a $90 million US soccer contract that includes national team and other games). If the social media buzz could be converted into viewers, then there is potential there.

The negative spin is that these numbers are not large enough to develop into a genuine major league market. MLS is drowning in an overcrowded sports media market which is focused on watching the very best that each sport has to offer.

Note to self: remember to update these figures in one year’s time and see how things are changing.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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One Comment
  1. Craig Kerr December 12, 2016 at 6:56 pm Reply

    I don’t know why Sports Economists still think the inequality in EPL should hurt demand as it would in North America. Sure, if sports fans in Cleveland are sick of watching the Browns fail every year, they can watch the Indians (MLB) and/or the Cavaliers (NBA). But if Middlesborough FC fans are tired of their team being at the bottom or being relegated, what is their local major league substitute? The FA has a monopoly on local “major league” sports so league inequality is a secondary concern in consumer demand I think. Of course I don’t live in England so maybe you can tell me why that line of thinking is wrong.

    MLS is in a very difficult position. You’re right that for casual sports fans, the American market is beyond saturated. There are pure soccer fans but even this crowd has has to be won over from all the European leagues and Liga MX coverage we get in the States. For now, it survives as a pyramid scheme selling new franchises but that can’t last forever.

    Thanks for the post! This is what I’m spending my time on instead of grading as well.

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